The newly released 2026 Pacific Security Outlook Report has highlighted growing security challenges across the Blue Pacific, with key implications for Vanuatu and other island nations.

Produced by the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat and the Pacific Fusion Centre, the report identifies climate change as the single greatest threat to Pacific security, wellbeing, and prosperity. It warns that worsening climate indicators, rising sea levels, and repeated hazard events will continue to drive insecurity throughout 2026.

The report states that climate risks in the Pacific are now exceeding global averages, with warmer ocean temperatures, stronger hazard events, and increasing threats to food, water, and livelihoods.

For Vanuatu, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, the findings are especially relevant as communities continue to face cyclones, earthquakes, coastal erosion, and climate-related displacement.

Beyond climate, the report also raises concerns over transnational crime, cyber security, and economic pressures, warning that geopolitical competition between major powers is becoming sharper in the Pacific over the next 12 to 24 months.

It says the increasing number of bilateral and mini-lateral security agreements in the region could make coordinated responses more difficult without strong Pacific-led mechanisms.

The report also notes that critical minerals, seabed mining, and emerging technologies are becoming new areas of strategic competition in the Pacific.

Forum leaders say the recently endorsed Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration will serve as a political anchor to help Pacific countries protect sovereignty and manage growing external pressures.

Security analysts say the report is highly relevant for Vanuatu, where climate resilience, border protection, cyber readiness, and disaster response remain national priorities.

Source: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat & Pacific Fusion Centre, Pacific Security Outlook Report 2026