The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) says heavy flowering and fruiting of mango trees is traditionally regarded across many islands in Vanuatu as an indicator that the cyclone and wet season is approaching.

According to VMGD, this traditional knowledge has been used by communities for many years to observe changes in the environment and anticipate seasonal conditions.

VMGD says heavy flowering or fruiting of mango trees is traditionally associated with an active cyclone season and may indicate the possibility of more than one cyclone developing during the coming season.

The department says mango is also regarded as a long-term traditional indicator, meaning the flowering and fruiting patterns can provide a sign of cyclone activity several months before the cyclone season begins.

However, VMGD says Vanuatu is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, which are expected to become very strong, with impacts likely to increase over the coming months.

The department says this makes it equally important for communities to begin preparing for the cyclone season.

VMGD notes that research has shown severe Category 3 to Category 5 tropical cyclones can occur during or following very strong El Niño events.

Strong El Niño conditions can contribute to warmer sea surface temperatures and surrounding air, which can help create conditions favourable for tropical cyclone development.

VMGD gives Severe Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016 as an example, which occurred following the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event.