Local food prices could increase later this year as the expected El Niño event brings prolonged dry conditions across Vanuatu, according to the Vanuatu Meteorology and Hydrological Services (VMHS).
Forecasters say the climate pattern is expected to strengthen between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially affecting agricultural production and water supplies in several parts of the country.
VMHS warned that reduced rainfall and extended dry periods could impact local crops, leading to lower food production and higher market prices.
Public and stakeholders are encouraged to prepare early by adopting water conservation measures and strengthening food security plans.
Officials say while El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, its impacts can be significant for Pacific Island countries that depend heavily on rainfall for agriculture and water resources.
VMHS will continue monitoring conditions closely and provide regular updates as the event develops over the coming months.
Expected impacts of El Niño in Vanuatu
- Less rainfall in many parts of Vanuatu
- Higher chance of drought (very dry conditions)
- Low water levels in rivers, springs, and other water sources
- Increased pressure on water supply, especially for communities that rely on rainwater
- Dry ground conditions affecting farming and food production
- Higher risk of bushfires due to dry weather
- More very hot days, which may affect people and animals (temperatures may increase by about 0.5°C to 1.5°C)
- Significant damage to the environment, including forests and freshwater areas
- Increase in food prices
