Who is and and who is not in town is the topic of conversation before the 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ meeting even gets underway.

At time of writing, five leaders are confirmed as not attending. The newest addition to the list is Prime Minister Wale of Solomon Islands who has returned to Honiara to deal with a motion of no confidence lodged by Home Affairs Minister, Hon Manasseh Maelanga. Wale was informed by Tavuli News of the motion on his arrival yesterday (Saturday) evening and flew out early this morning (Sunday). His absence is particularly noticeable given he is the outgoing chair of the PIF.

Prime Minister Jotham Napat will not attend the meeting, as he will be at the LPV party congress on Maewo. Vanuatu will be represented by Hon Ralph Regenvanu, Minister for Climate Change Adaptation, Energy, Environment, Meteorology, Geo-Hazards and Disaster Management

Other leaders confirmed as not attending are President Maamau of Kiribati, PM Laaulialemalietoa Leauatea Schmidt of Samoa, and President Tukumuli of New Caledonia.

In doubt are PM Rabuka from Fiji and President Adeang of Naoero (formerly Nauru).

Speaking from Wellington, Dr Anna Powles from Massey University noted that the absence of so many leaders will be particularly felt on Thursday at the Leaders’ Retreat “where decisions are due to be made on critical regional issues, including contentious issues such as how to respond to increased military testing”.

PIF makes decisions by consensus, and this has already proved challenging. At the recent meeting of Forum foreign ministers, a response to China’s recent missile test was not agreed owing to a lack of consensus. Powles noted, “the region has long argued its currency is its cohesion and power as a diplomatic bloc. This is being seriously undermined”

Powles sees the failure of leaders to be here in Palau as a product of the challenging environments in which they are operating. It “signals the growing challenge of balancing national interest, regionalism and geopolitics”.

More broadly, the poor turnout raises a question as to how relevant the PIF is for leaders, and for Pacific people more generally. Powles recognises this as a significant challenge:

“The lack of participation does not suggest that the PIF is losing relevance, but it does speak to the growing challenge of keeping the region unified in the face of competing interests”.

Photo credit: TMC Palau/Pasifika TV/Stefan Armbruster