Today, July 1st marks the start of one of Vanuatu’s driest and coolest months, as the country continues through its dry season, which runs from May to October.

According to the Climate Division under the Department of Meteorology and Geo-Hazards, July will bring mostly sunny days, with only occasional rain expected. However, this pattern may change depending on rainfall levels influenced by several climate systems.

Acting Principal Scientific Officer in the Seasonal Forecast Section, John Mangau, explained that five main factors affect rainfall patterns during this season:

“The key ones are the Madden-Julian Oscillation, La Niña (linked to longer rainfall periods), cold southerly winds (South Draught), sea temperature rise, and overall climate change — all contributing to how clouds form and when rainfall happens.”

Mangau said the chance of rainfall this month ranges from low to moderate, meaning there is a 10% to 70% likelihood of rain in some areas, depending on conditions.

Cooler air temperatures are also expected due to southerly winds, sun positioning, cold sea breezes, and reduced cloud cover.

“Clouds usually help keep warmth close to the islands. But during dry season, fewer clouds mean more heat escapes at night — that’s why nights feel colder,” Mangau said.

While air temperatures will drop, sea surface temperatures remain steady at around 24–25°C, which may still trigger rainfall in certain parts of the country.

The Climate Division adds that based on records, August is typically drier than July, making it the driest month on Vanuatu’s calendar.